No Heidelberg at Graph Expo 2010

WhatTheyThink reported last week that neither Heidelberg nor Komori would exhibit at Graph Expo this year. This news represents the culmination of a trend that has been brewing over the past ten years at the Graph Expo and Print shows. Since 2004, InfoTrends has compared the Graph Expo show floor maps to provide an indication of market changes. These rankings are compiled by measuring the published show floor map. Initially InfoTrends began conducting this exercise to show the impact of the digital vendors on a trade show that had been dominated by traditional printing press vendors. This point has long since been made. For all practical purposes, as one looks at the list of top vendors, Graph Expo has become dominated by digital exhibitors.

Heidelberg has been the number one exhibitor by this measure since InfoTrends started tracking this, and chances are they were the top exhibitor for many shows prior to Graph Expo 2004. Heidelberg’s booth space, which used to be much larger than any other exhibitor’s space, was not that much bigger than either HP’s or Xerox’s booths at Graph Expo 2008. This was also the case at Print 09. Now that Heidelberg has decided not to exhibit at Graph Expo 2010, another company will have the largest booth, most likely HP or Xerox.

Benny Landa, founder of Indigo, predicted at drupa 2008 that HP would be the largest graphic arts company in the world by drupa 2012. (HP, based on show floor space, was the third largest exhibitor at drupa 2008, after Heidelberg and manroland.) What sounded like a bold statement at the time could very well come true. HP may be the largest exhibitor at drupa 2012, and its graphic arts revenues may exceed Heidelberg and other companies that aspire to have that title.

Of course, booth size is not everything. At the same time that digital vendors are having greater influence on the Graph Expo and Print show floors, all of the exhibitors are assessing their trade show expenditures and determining whether it makes sense to bring large pieces of equipment to the show. Not only is it costly to ship equipment in, but it requires significant set-up time and booth staff to support, which may make it impossible to bring equipment to shorter shows. Digital print vendors have less of a dilemma given the relatively small size of many digital devices, but even they made a statement at recent shows by not bringing any equipment at all (See InfoTrends blog entitled “Kodak’s Print 09 Gamble: The Pipeline of Innovation“) or leaving some of their biggest products at home.

Many vendors have determined that they can wine and dine and fly dozens of serious prospects to their main demonstration centers for the price of a trade show. That is why lead generation is such a key aspect of these shows. Most of the traditional printing press vendors had little or no equipment in their booths. They had a presence at the show, but that was mainly to meet and greet customers and prospects. Those who actually wanted to see the equipment had to go elsewhere. So is it a surprise that Heidelberg and Komori are pulling out of Graph Expo 2010? Not really. They have determined the expense is not worth the return. The larger question, and the one that relates to revenues rather than show floor square footage, is which company will take the leadership position in serving the production market’s need for equipment, software, and services.

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